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Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Free Music Model part I


What would happen if music were to be distributed through file-sharing entirely for free?  What if the music industry as we know it totally gave way to torrents and usenet sites as the primary mode of music distribution?

Well after the technologically impaired suddenly find out that there are other ways to get music besides itunes, and possibly Apple's revenue drops drastically, how would artists respond?  We know how the industry would respond.  Hell. 

We already know what happens when an industry becomes entirely obsolete, so I won't go into that too much.  The response would start right before the big moment, and follow the classic "7 stages of grief". 

STAGE 1 : SHOCK AND DENIAL
The very first response to this new idea of free music would be a sort of scoffing "It'll never work, you ungrateful pirates!"  They would constantly publicize left and right that this is a stupid idea and would never work in practice.  Its just a passing fad, some crazy idealist notion.  Then after the movement gains momentum...

STAGE 2 : PAIN AND GUILT
They would realize that it is not about to go away any time soon.  They will realize that they have made themselves look like greedy corporate fatcats by their previous allegations, and will feel bad.  But not for long, or in any great degree, because they are about to lose money, dammit, and this is no time for feeling sorry for ones' self!

STAGE 3: ANGER AND BARGAINING
Some smart companies will catch on.  They will still decry  the free model as outlandish, and will revitalize their anti-free model propaganda.  They will aggressively begin showing exactly WHY free music would be a bad idea.  They will blame pirates for poisoning the minds of the public.  They will accuse the government of not stepping in.  They will shift blame to everyone but themselves.  Those smart companies, however, will start making deals.  Lower album costs, lower downloads, bonus downloads, etc. in an attempt to bring everyone back.  There will undoubtedly be filings for government subsidies, which they will undoubtedly get.  But they will squander their money.  None of it will work, and they will move on to:

STAGE 4 : DEPRESSION, REFLECTION, LONELINESS
The pity stage.  They will stand there and watch as their mortal enemy gets passed along to artists and labels, and watch as their empire crumbles.   No one is there for them.  No one pities them.  This ties in with stage 3, as they distribute media showing all the lost jobs and revenue and companies going out of business because the consumer was being selfish.  And no one will care...

STAGE 5 : UPWARD TURN
Some bright young startups and maybe some of the old regime will think about it one day and decide "why not embrace this?  We can still make money on free music!"  They will start their own ad supported torrent sites and enact quality control, maybe start their own premium download sites for ultra high speed downloads in top quality, or even ready-to-burn CDs.   They will realize what CAN be done, and maybe invest in Pandora or other music discovery services.  Its a start...

STAGE 6 : RECONSTRUCTION
Simply the enactment of plans made in stage 5.  Leading finally into...

STAGE 7 : ACCEPTANCE AND HOPE
The final stage. A balance has been reached.  Consumers are happy.  Companies happy.  Everyones in one big happyfest.  We can all live our lives...

You want proof?  This exact same process happened to the newspaper industry not long ago.

We haven't even gotten into the meat of the matter yet.  The most important factor will be the response of the artist and songwriter, which I will be getting into in part II.

3 comments:

  1. there will always be people producing music, free or not.

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  2. That reminds me of the movie "All that jazz"

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  3. Wow, that is a really cool perspective, in a way to look at things. Imma gonna read it again and let it settle, good stuff!

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